Report Compiled: 2020-05-11

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 5184bec Max Data Date: 2020-05-10

NYT Repo Commit: d89108a Max Data Date: 2020-05-10

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-21 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 552.9174 892.4273 1485.2993
2020-06-21 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 590.8990 840.2712 1538.4035
2020-06-21 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 1063.5344 1675.4439 2581.9592
2020-06-21 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 621.5415 1000.5353 2498.1245
2020-06-21 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 490.9739 1099.2334 3306.7556
2020-06-21 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 669.9312 1303.5753 4623.4819
2020-06-21 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 806.1726 1661.3652 3421.8684
2020-06-21 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 669.1179 1553.2559 4709.6989
2020-06-21 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 464.0230 700.8004 1162.4978
2020-06-21 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 508.4198 867.3686 1827.2600
2020-06-21 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 927.4633 1505.3311 2597.4069
2020-06-21 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 703.6813 1380.3988 3893.9825
2020-06-21 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 400.8089 645.9993 1016.8058
2020-06-21 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 447.7642 597.4742 960.1061
2020-06-21 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 944.5159 1534.8475 2559.1830
2020-06-21 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 639.4315 1280.7151 3806.4346
2020-05-25 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 315.5073 450.7919 635.6196
2020-05-25 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 381.1917 464.3337 653.1961
2020-05-25 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 372.3290 481.6475 662.1230
2020-05-25 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 384.7578 487.5934 644.0497